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來源：宜減煤 Farewell Coal 
圖片來源：今周刊 據(jù)英國衛(wèi)報(bào)6月21日報(bào)道，新型冠狀病毒使化石燃料行業(yè)遭受史上最大的一次打擊,，而且很明顯，2020年對石油和天然氣的需求暴跌不僅僅是皮肉之傷,。全球新冠病毒危機(jī)可能已經(jīng)觸發(fā)了大宗石油的終極下跌,。Coronavirus has dealt the fossil-fuel industry the biggest single blow in its history, and it is clear that 2020’s plummeting demand for oil and gas is no mere flesh wound. The global Covid-19 crisis may have already triggered a terminal decline for big oil.BP在6月中決定重新設(shè)定其對未來三十年的油價(jià)預(yù)測，這是石油行業(yè)震動下的最新動態(tài),。該公司取消了對未來30年油價(jià)每桶75美元的預(yù)測,，轉(zhuǎn)為支持平均價(jià)格為55美元,。這一分水嶺的決定一度將其業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值減少逾170億美元，這可能意味著其許多尚未開發(fā)的石油儲備仍將留在地下,。BP’s decision last week to reset its oil price forecasts for the next three decades was the latest tremor in a seismic shift for the industry. Its forecasts of a $75-a-barrel oil price over the next 30 years were scrapped in favour of an average price of $55. The watershed decision wiped more than $17bn from the value of its business at a stroke and could mean many of its untapped oil reserves will remain in the ground.BP在聲明中著重指出向可再生未來過渡。首席執(zhí)行官伯納德·盧尼表示：“這些艱難的決定根植于我們凈零的野心,，并在這次流行病中得到了再次確定,，將使我們在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中保持競爭力,。該公司補(bǔ)充說，新冠流行可能會“加快向低碳的經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源系統(tǒng)的過渡的速度”,。The transition to a renewable future featured prominently in BP’s statement. Chief executive Bernard Looney said: “These difficult decisions – rooted in our net-zero ambition and reaffirmed by the pandemic – will better enable us to compete through the energy transition.” The company added that the pandemic would probably “accelerate the pace of transition to a lower-carbon economy and energy system”.顯而易見，綠色轉(zhuǎn)型的進(jìn)程不可阻擋,。幾周前,，皇家荷蘭殼牌集團(tuán)也不可避免地遭遇石油行業(yè)回報(bào)下滑。殼牌公司披露其股東股息的大幅調(diào)整,，今年預(yù)期年度股息已減少了四分之三，這是自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來首次削減股息,。It is a clear acknowledgement that the progress of the green transformation is unstoppable, only weeks after Royal Dutch Shell too bowed to the inevitable decline of oil industry returns. Shell revealed a dramatic rebasing of its shareholder dividends, wiping three-quarters from the annual payouts expected this year, in its first dividend cut since the second world war.殼牌首席執(zhí)行官本·范·伯登當(dāng)時(shí)表示,，新冠病毒的流行可能使石油市場更加接近高水位，并且可能意味著該公司表現(xiàn)出對清潔能源項(xiàng)目的偏好,，“這將在未來提供更好的服務(wù)”,。Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said at the time that the pandemic could bring the high-water mark of the oil market closer and may mean that the company shows preference to clean energy projects “which serve us better in the future”.本·范·伯登比納德·盧尼更為謹(jǐn)慎,，但他們正朝著同樣的結(jié)論前進(jìn)。人類最古老的恐怖活動——流行病——表明,，世界上兩個(gè)最強(qiáng)大的污染源已經(jīng)過時(shí)了,。Van Beurden has been more cautious than Looney, but they are heading to the same conclusion. The most ancient of human terrors – a pandemic – has shown two of the world’s most powerful polluters to be out of time.兩家公司都承認(rèn)，由于疫情期間化石燃料使用量下降,，全球石油需求的峰值可能會比預(yù)期更快到來，專注于綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的政府為此提供了更進(jìn)一步的動力,。一家研究公司Rystad Energy認(rèn)為,，隨著全球?qū)θ剂系男枨笤?年內(nèi)達(dá)峰,，可能有超過2800億桶石油留在地下。還有人認(rèn)為也許去年已經(jīng)達(dá)到峰值,。Both companies acknowledge that the peak in global oil demand is likely to come sooner than expected as a result of the collapse in fossil-fuel use during the pandemic, with further momentum provided by governments that focus on a green economic recovery. One research firm, Rystad Energy, believes that more than 280 billion barrels of oil may be left in the ground as the world’s appetite for the fuel peaks in seven years’ time. Others believe the peak may have passed last year.但是,，氣候變化的勝利并不能保證,。它要求政府加快綠色經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃，也將是對選民政治意愿的考驗(yàn),。當(dāng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來最嚴(yán)重的打擊時(shí),，政客們將謹(jǐn)慎測試公眾對于進(jìn)一步改革的決心,。Nonetheless, a climate victory is not guaranteed. It will require governments to accelerate plans for a green economy, and that will be a test of voters’ political will. Politicians will be wary of testing public resolve for further change when economies around the world have received their worst battering since the second world war.某些行業(yè)，例如航空業(yè),，距離能夠?yàn)闇p排做出有意義貢獻(xiàn)的技術(shù)突破似乎還有數(shù)十年的時(shí)間。Some industries, such as aviation, appear to be decades away from the technological breakthroughs that would enable them to make a meaningful contribution to emissions cuts.這將給石油公司施加更大壓力,，要求他們承認(rèn)自己的命運(yùn),，并將更多的管理重點(diǎn)和資金投入可再生能源領(lǐng)域,。BP設(shè)定了到2050年碳足跡凈零的目標(biāo)。但是,，其僅將120億美元年度投資預(yù)算中的5億美元投入綠色能源,，可見言行不一,，這是頗為熟悉的，對主要污染者的慣常指責(zé)。但是,，這一次,，地球已經(jīng)存在的危機(jī)（冠狀病毒和氣候問題）對化石燃料企業(yè)構(gòu)成了終極威脅,。BP和殼牌非常了解這一點(diǎn)。This will put further pressure on oil companies to acknowledge their fate and put more management focus, and money, into embracing renewables. BP set a carbon footprint target of net zero by 2050. But by putting just $500m of its annual $12bn investment budget into green energy, it showed that words were not being matched with deeds – a familiar accusation can be levelled at major polluters. This time, though, the existential threats to the planet (both Covid and climate) pose a terminal threat to the fossil fuel majors. BP and Shell are savvy enough to know this.石油公司——在與氣候危機(jī)作斗爭中損失最大的公司——承認(rèn)他們的行業(yè)正處于衰退的風(fēng)口浪尖,，這再次表明重燃希望，帶來改變是可能的,。The admission by oil companies – the corporations with most to lose from a battle against the climate crisis – that their industry is on the cusp of decline renews hope that change is possible.
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