來源：投資圈女混混

第一章：?什么叫做交易策略,？為什么那么重要,？

第二章：?好的技術(shù)交易系統(tǒng)只是成功的一半？

第三章：?務(wù)求簡單

第四章：?贏家和輸家

第五章 交易工具

The Tools of the Trade

A popular country and western song relates the pithy advice of a traveling gambler. Like Ecclesiastes, which tells us that “to all things there is a season,” the gambler reminds us that there’s a time to hold’em and a time to fold’em - and sometimes a time to get out of town fast! This down-home wisdom is well known and generally practiced by experienced operators because if they don’t practice it, they are soon known as former operators.

有一首非常通俗的西部鄉(xiāng)村歌曲,，給四處為家的賭客一個忠言。就像傳道書說的“萬事萬物都有四季”，賭客也提醒我們：該抱就抱,，該收就收——有時要趕緊卷鋪蓋出城！這個質(zhì)樸無華的智慧,，很多人都知道,，經(jīng)驗老道的交易者也都身體力行，因為如果他們不奉行,，很快就會成為“先前的”交易者,。

Over the years, I’ve been amazed at how naive many public speculators are concerning commodity trading. It is so easy to get into the market. In many instances, you just have to contact a broker, fill out some forms, and send along a check. Within a few days you can be swinging in and out of a big line of positions. Because you can trade on as little as 6 percent of the market value, a staring equity of just $10,000 can control a position of some $170,000. While it’s exciting to think about the vast profit potential, you must realize that an adverse move of, say, 3 percent could deplete your capital by as much as 50 percent and a 6 percent reversal could wipe out completely.

這些年來，很多投機者對商品交易抱著十分天真的想法,，讓我覺得很驚訝,。要進入這個市場十分簡單。大多數(shù)情況下,，你只要找到經(jīng)紀人,，填一些表格，連支票一同寄過去就可以了,。沒幾天,，你就可以大進大出，隨你喜歡,，愛建多大的倉位就建多大的倉位,。由于你的保證金可以低到市價的6%，所以剛開始只要10000元,，就能夠控制約170000元的倉位,。雖然想到潛在的龐大利潤會讓人興奮不已，但是不要忘了,，一旦趨勢對你不利,，只要波動3%，你的本金就可能虧掉一半,；波動6%,，全部本金就會虧光。

And isn’t it remarkable that the same person who may have trained and studied for years preparing for a particular career or profession may think nothing of plunging into the futures market? This is frequently done with little training or practical experience, on the basis of nothing more than a whim, a rumor, or a smattering of floor gossip. As a matter of fact, I have seen people spend more time and energy “researching” for the purchase of a camera or TV than for a purchase of a large grain or metal position. The annals of futures trading are littered with the financial remains of many well-intended, would-be speculators.

很多人為了得到一個比較好的事業(yè)或職業(yè),，愿意接受多年的訓(xùn)練,，也會認真學習幾年。但是對于期貨,，卻想都不想,，就一頭栽進去了，這不是很叫人吃驚嗎,？而一頭栽進去的人,，往往沒受過多少訓(xùn)練,，或者沒有實戰(zhàn)經(jīng)驗，所憑借的不過是一個小道消息,，一個謠傳,，或是營業(yè)廳內(nèi)一知半解的閑聊。我見過有些人為了買照相機或電視機,，花了不少時間和精力去“鉆研”,，要建立谷物或金屬大倉位的時候，卻沒花什么時間和精力,。在期貨交易的戰(zhàn)場上,，到處都是很想賺大錢的準投機者。

To continue the above analogy, the majority of novice traders, after a brief but generally expensive series of lessons on the pitfalls of inept and undisciplined speculation, reluctantly join the category of former speculators - sadder and poorer but regrettably not any wiser.

絕大部分天真的交易者,，從失誤和毫無章法的投機中得到短暫和昂貴的一連串教訓(xùn)后,，心不甘情不愿地加入所謂悲嘆投機者的行列——心情更悲傷，更窮,，而且很遺憾,，他們并沒有變得更聰明。

I have always been a firm believer in thorough and organized preparation for every field of serious endeavor, be it surgery, sailing, speculation, or whatever. And granted, the person with a demanding, full-time career or profession certainly can’t devote full-time effort to studying and preparing for futures speculation. Nevertheless, he or she can find ways to help prepare for speculative market operations to improve the chances of success.

我一直堅信,，任何領(lǐng)域,，不管是外科手術(shù)、航海,、投機或者其它事業(yè),，如真想有所成就，就一定要做周到和有條不紊的準備,?？梢韵胂螅粋€人如果另外還有吃重的全職事業(yè)或工作,，那他一定沒辦法全心全意去研究和準備期貨的投機,。但是他（她）還是可以找到辦法，為交易多做準備,，提高成功的概率,。

One of the most effective ways to prepare for your entry into futures speculation prior to risking real dollars - and I hold this to be a universal way to study or prepare for any new undertaking - is through a careful study of books dealing with the technique and methodology of futures trading. In addition, I’ve often found articles and features in the various financial magazines, as well as the daily and weekly business periodicals, to be helpful. However, I am referring to articles concerning market strategy or articles that focus on general economic or business conditions. I specifically exclude pieces that attempt to predict future prices or price trends because, even if the forecast were correct - and that is usually not the case - you still have to confront the problem of whether it has already been discounted in the market. As a matter of fact, there is an old Wall Street maxim, “Buy on the rumor and sell on the news.” This is just another way of saying that by the time the news is made public, it is invariably too late to take any action on it.

在拿錢從事冒險之前，為期貨投機做準備的一個最有效方法,，便是仔細鉆研有關(guān)期貨技巧和方法的書籍,。我認為，對于任何新事情,，都要提前研究和準備,。此外，我也覺得各種金融雜志，以及每天和每周發(fā)行的商業(yè)期刊,，上面所寫的文章或特稿十分有用。不過,，我所指的是談市場策略的文章,，或重點放在一般經(jīng)濟或商業(yè)狀況的文章。凡是想要預(yù)測期貨價格或價格趨勢的文章,，我特別要把它們過濾掉,，因為，即使預(yù)測準確（通常不是）,，你還是要面對一個問題,，市場是不是已經(jīng)消化吸收了這個預(yù)測。事實上,，華爾街上有句古老的名言：“謠言出現(xiàn)時買入,，消息出現(xiàn)時賣出?！边@句話的意思是：當公布消息時再采取行動,，其實已經(jīng)遲了。

I can recall a situation several years ago when I had taken a big position on the long side of plywood for my clients and myself. Within a few days of my initial purchase, I had a visit from one of my larger discretionary accounts, a securities analyst for a major investment firm. He had just learned that I had put him into the plywood. Greatly agitated, he informed me that he recently attended a stockholders’ meeting at Georgia Pacific and had heard from one of the officers that they expected the plywood market to remain on the defensive for the balance of the year. As I was thinking of a diplomatic way of inviting him to stop telling me this irrelevant story, I watched in amazement as the pulled from his case the current issue of Time. It too offered a bearish analysis of wood and wood product prices. Being by nature a rather conservative investor (I wondered what was he doing in futures trading and why hadn’t he told me how conservative he was when he opened the account), he became a semi-basket case moments later. That occurred when I informed him that his plywood position was even bigger than he thought because I had closed out a nontrending grain position and had pyramided into more plywood.

幾年前,，有一次,，我替客戶和自己建立了一個很大的合板多頭倉。剛買入的幾天內(nèi),，某大投資公司的證券分析師來看我,，他是我的大客戶，他剛知道我?guī)退I了合板,。他感到焦慮,，因為他剛參加了喬治亞太平洋公司的股東會議，聽一位官員說,，該公司預(yù)期那一年年底前,，合板市場都會處于被動局面。我正準備用外交式的禮貌,，請他不要告訴我這個故事,，卻驚見他從手提包里抽出一本當時的《時代周刊》?！稌r代周刊》也對木材和木材產(chǎn)品的價格做了偏空的分析,。他天生是個相當保守的投資者（我很奇怪，他為什么要做期貨,，他在開戶的時候,，為什么不告訴我他很保守？），沒過多久,，我告訴他,，他的合板倉位比他所想象的還要大，因為我已把沒有明顯趨勢的谷物倉位給平掉,，金字塔加倉,，買了更多的合板，他絕望了,。

It took a while to calm and relax him because, while he was an experienced and highly regarded securities analyst and a partner in a prominent investment firm, he had no previous exposure to futures trading. In the ensuing discussion, I made the following points: I didn’t care what the Georgia Pacific speaker said because (a) he was either uninformed about price trends in the wood market, or (b) he was informed but didn’t care to share his information with the public, or (c) he was correct, in which case the information had probably been already discounted in the market. In response to his query on why I had bought even more plywood, I told him that the strong market action position had confirmed the bull market, that it was the best acting position in our portfolio, and that, by this time, it showed good paper profits. Moreover, it is one of my strategies to pyramid onto the best performing positions while closing out the worst performing.

他的心過了一會兒才平靜下來,。雖然他是個很有經(jīng)驗和頗受敬重的證券分析師，也是一家著名投資公司的合伙人,，但是以前沒做過期貨,。接下來的討論中，我說明了幾點：我并不在意喬治亞太平洋公司那位先生說了些什么,，無非三個理由：（a）他不知道木材市場的價格趨勢,，（b）他早已知道，但不愿跟大眾分享他的信息,，或者是（c）他講得不錯,，但是這個信息可能已經(jīng)被市場吸收消化了。為什么要買這么多的合板,？我回答說市場明顯上漲,，它是我投資組合里面表現(xiàn)最好的倉位，賬面上已有很不錯的浮動利潤,。何況,，我的策略是：表現(xiàn)最好的倉位要做金字塔加倉，表現(xiàn)最差的倉位要平掉,。

I was still in semi-shock from the events just mentioned, but the next day brought something that took my mind off the plywood market and the strange meeting with my client. As I walked down the dock to my mailbox, I wondered if the package had arrived yet. The publisher assured me it had been posted, but as of last evening it was still in transit. Today I was in luck, however, for there it was in the marina office. My pace quickened as I walked back to my boat, settled into a comfortable deck chair, and purposefully opened the wrapping. For the next few hours I was totally immersed in studying and taking copious notes.

這件事,，讓我感到?jīng)_動，心情久久難以平復(fù),，但是第二天,，有件事讓我的心思脫離了合板市場，也忘記了跟客戶奇怪的見面情況,。我向碼頭郵筒走去,，想看看所訂閱的包裹到了沒有。出版商告訴我,，包裹已經(jīng)投遞,，但直到昨天晚上，包裹還在途中,。今天我的運氣不錯,，因為它到了碼頭的郵筒,。我加快腳步，走回船上,，躺進甲板上舒適的躺椅內(nèi),，懷著一顆期盼的心情拆閱信封。接下來幾個小時內(nèi),，我完全沉浸在閱讀那豐富的內(nèi)容和做筆記之中,。

What, you may wonder, was the object of this intense concentration? What could have so absorbed me for hours on a beautiful Saturday afternoon? Perhaps a favorite magazine or a long-awaited and sought-after book? The truth is, I spent those hours completely immersed in a large volume of contemporary nonfiction dealing with both national and international events and offering, to those who can read its secrets, important clues to the future. The future?

你會問，什么內(nèi)容讓你如此用心,？什么東西會讓我用美好的周六下午來研究它呢？也許是一本我喜歡的雜志,，也許是一本找了很久的書,？事實上，我看的不是小說,，是一些國內(nèi),，國際事件和商品報價，如果你是有心的人,，可以知道里面的秘密，會涉及到未來。未來,？

The title of this fascinating volume was, Ten-Year Weekly Range Charts, published by Commodity Perspective of Chicago (Commodity Perspective, 30 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL 60606). When combined with a judicious mixture of concentration, experience, and recall, plus an objective, disciplined approach to the markets, it can help unlock part of the key to profitable long-term trading and investing.

這是一本很有趣的著作,，是芝加哥商品觀點出版的《10年周線圖》。有了這本書,，再加上個人的智慧,、專注、經(jīng)驗,、反思,、客觀、紀律性,，長期交易和投資獲利的大門必可打開一部分,。

In my experience, the most fruitful approach for the nonfloor operator is long-term, trend-following position trading. Here, the trader eschews trying to predict tops and bottoms as a means of closing out (with-the-trend positions) and reversing (to against-the-trend positions). Chart pattern counts, including the 50 percent return rule can be used, but only as a general guide to likely areas of support or resistance, or to locate areas for pyramiding with-the-trend positions. Instead of trying to predict tops and bottoms, the trader seeks to identify major price trends. He wants to get aboard soon after the trend has been confirmed, on a minor trend reaction against the major trend, or on a significant breakthrough of support (for a short position) or resistance (for a long position) – but always in the direction of the ongoing major trend.

根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗，場外交易者最賺錢的方法就是跟隨趨勢做長線,。在這里,，交易者不必預(yù)測頭部和底部，不必靠著這種預(yù)測去平倉（順勢的倉位）或做反轉(zhuǎn)（逆勢的倉位）,。趨勢圖的形態(tài)是可以運用的,，其中包括50%的回調(diào)（反彈）法則，但這只能當作一般的指南,，告訴我們支撐或壓力可能在哪里,，或找出順勢的倉位可以在哪里做金字塔加倉,。交易者不必花精力去預(yù)測頭部或底部，而是用心找出主要的價格趨勢是什么,。一旦趨勢確立,，他希望能趕緊上車。不管是在主趨勢的回調(diào)（反彈）之處進場,，還是在支撐點顯著突破之處（做空時）或壓力點顯著突破之處（做多時）進場都可以——但他永遠都處于持續(xù)性的主要趨勢中,。

Admittedly, this type of long-term, trend-following trading is not the easiest or quickest way to make a living, but for those who are able to do it while managing to avoid getting killed in the between times, the results can be truly impressive - even running into telephone-number-size profits. In the mid-70s, for instance, my clients and I extracted a spectacular seven-figure profit from the wheat market by correctly identifying the long-term trend (up) and sticking with the position (from 3.60 to around 4.90 - pyramiding along the way) for the major position for the bull move (see Figure 5-1).

我承認，這種長期,，順勢的交易,，不是最簡單或最快速的謀生方式，但是能夠這么做的人,，如果同時能夠避免在波浪起伏之間被殺,，成果會十分驚人——利潤甚至可以達到電話號碼那么多。比如說,，70年代中期,，我和客戶準確地找出小麥的長期趨勢（上漲），而且在多頭趨勢的主升段持有倉位不放（從3.60漲到4.90左右,，還一路金字塔加倉）,，結(jié)果從小麥市場得到了可觀的7位數(shù)字利潤（見圖5-1）。

圖5-1　1975年3月小麥市場（文字：買入,、加倉,、加倉、平掉整個倉位）

【This was my final play before I closed my office, packed my bags, and took off for a five-year sabbatical. I commenced the bull deal around the 3.60 level and added to the long position twice: on the June breakout around the 3.85 level and again on the July reaction towards 4.40. I liquidated the entire position on the morning of December 9, 1974, on the failure of the rally. Bullish news that morning should have put the market up 3 to 4 cents. Instead, it opened 2 cents lower. When prices failed to advance following bullish news, I felt it was time to leave the party. Good thing too! Seven weeks later, the market was $1.00 lower.

做完了這一筆,，我就關(guān)掉辦公室,，收拾行囊，休息了5年,。我在3.60左右建倉,，加倉2次：6月在3.85附近的突破之處，7月在跌向4.40的回調(diào)處,。我在1974年12月9日上午因反彈失敗,，平掉整個倉位。那天早上傳出了利好消息,，本該使行情上漲3到4分,，但開盤反而下跌2分。價格不能跟著利好消息上漲,，我覺得該出場了,。這次做得很好！7周后,，市價跌了1元,?！?/span>

But like any good craftsman we do need tools, and the particular tool in this discussion is a well-organized set of long-term continuation charts. The best set that I have seen is the aforementioned collection of Ten-Year Weekly Range Charts, published semiannually each spring and fall. First introduced in 1984, the set consists of a series of 30 12.5”×17” charts printed in heavy stock and spiral bound into a single desk-size volume. Each chart records 10 years for weekly close price activity. A periodic review of these long-term charts provides the operator with a distinctly advantageous viewpoint. The noise and clutter of the market place are deleted, and the major trends are clearly displayed for the astute and pragmatic analyst.

但是就像好的工匠，工欲善其事,，必先利其器,，而這里我們所要提到的工具，便是一組整理得很好的長期連續(xù)圖,。我見過最好的一組,，是前面提過的《10年周線圖》，每半年（分春秋兩季）出版一次,。這些趨勢圖于1984年問世,，一個系列是30張12.5寸×17寸的圖形，有很多系列,。數(shù)量很多,，放到一起能堆滿桌子。每張圖都記錄了10年的每周收盤價,。交易者如果每隔一段時間就看看這本長期趨勢圖,，一定會得到一些清楚的,，比別人強的觀點,。這么一來，市場的雜音和吵鬧就會被刪除,，對聰明和務(wù)實的分析者來說,，主趨勢便會明顯擺在眼前。

The futures trader also needs a good chart service, and, fortunately, there are several of them available. There exists in some quarters the mistaken belief that only technically oriented traders need a chart service, while fundamentalists do not. I take issue with that suggestion and feel that all operators, regardless of their trading orientation, should include a regular subscription to one of the chart services as an integral part of their analysis. These services provide far more than an alphabetized collection of daily charts. Typically, a service arrives fresh weekly with some 200 charts depicting daily high-low-last prices, volume and open interest, some form of moving averages, cash or cash-versus-futures prices, overseas markets, and a collection of straddle (spread) charts. Included with the chart service, at regular intervals, are long-term weekly and monthly continuation charts going as far back as 20 years (see Figures 5-2 and 5-3). And finally, of particular interest to many technical traders is an oscillator or trend-indicator tabulation, such as the excellent Computer Trend Analyzer and charts furnished in the weekly service by Commodity Research Bureau of New York. This is a powerful aid in identifying the significant underlying trend of each market, with reversal points noted both above and below the trading ranges.

期貨交易者確實需要有人供應(yīng)優(yōu)秀的趨勢圖,，幸好,，有幾家公司提供的圖還不錯?？赡苡行┤擞心撤N誤解,，以為只有靠技術(shù)交易的人才需要圖形，依基本面交易的人則不需要,。我曾想過這個問題,，覺得所有交易者，不管他們的交易取向如何,，都應(yīng)該定期買張圖來看,，作為整體分析不可或缺的一部分。這些圖不僅僅是每天報價的集合,。大致來說,，每周送來的圖大概有200張，上面有每天的最高價,、最低價,、收盤價,、成交量、持倉量,、某種移動平均線,、現(xiàn)貨價格、現(xiàn)貨與期貨對照價格,、海外市場和跨期圖,。這些圖里面，會有一些依一定間距編成的周線或月線圖,，期間長達20年（見圖5-2和5-3）,。最后，還有很多技術(shù)交易者特別感興趣的振蕩指標或趨勢指標,，如首屈一指的“電腦趨勢分析者”以及紐約商品研究局每周提供的圖形,。要找出每個市場的顯著趨勢，以及交易區(qū)間之上或之下的反轉(zhuǎn)點,，這些圖形可以幫上很大的忙,。

圖5-2　取暖油（近期期貨）長期周線圖，1981-1986

【These long-term weekly charts offer a much broader perspective than the daily charts and can be of great value to the technical trader in identifying and analyzing major market trends and support/resistance levels.

長期周線圖提供的視野比日線圖要寬廣,，對技術(shù)交易者來說,，要找出和分析市場主趨勢以及支撐/壓力區(qū)，具有很大的價值,?！?/span>

圖5-3　橫跨20年的黃金（近期期貨）長期月線圖

【Long-term monthly charts, when used in conjunction with weekly charts, can provide the technical trader with the clearest and most advantageous perspective for trend-following position trading.

長期月線圖配合周線圖使用時，可以提供技術(shù)交易者最清楚和最有利的視野,，使順勢的倉位交易更能得心應(yīng)手,。】

Especially important for the fundamental analyst or anyone wishing to look beyond the strictest technical interpretation is the Commodity Year Book, published annually by Commodity Research Bureau. First published in 1939, this large volume is undoubtedly the most widely used commodity reference source. Besides offering extensive statistical tables and fundamental data on just about all worldwide commodities, the Year Book includes some excellent articles and practical features of interest to all serious traders.

商品研究局每年出版的《商品年鑒》,，對基本面分析師,，或任何不想把眼光局限在純技術(shù)性解釋的人來說，尤為重要,?！渡唐纺觇b》最早出版于1939年，這部厚書毫無疑問是人們最常用的商品參考書,?！渡唐纺觇b》提供了廣泛的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)圖表和基本面數(shù)據(jù)，幾乎包含了全球的商品,，更有精彩絕倫的文章和實用的特稿,，認真的交易者一定要看。

And, last but not least, are the trading systems, predominantly data bank and computer-oriented, which have increasingly come to dominate trading and timing decisions in just about all aspects of futures speculation and hedging. These will be discussed in Chapter Twelve.

最后但并非是最不重要的一點——交易系統(tǒng),。交易系統(tǒng),，尤其是歷史數(shù)據(jù)和電腦交易系統(tǒng),，在期貨投機和避險交易所有的交易和時機決策上，越來越有舉足輕重的地位,。我們會在第12章談這件事,。

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