世界決定視界,，視界決定世界

擦亮雙眼看世界 Global Perspective

See Globally via Global Perspective

本期導(dǎo)讀：中央銀行（central bank）,，簡(jiǎn)稱央行，是負(fù)責(zé)國(guó)家,、地區(qū)（如歐盟）貨幣政策的主體機(jī)構(gòu),，通常也是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體的唯一貨幣發(fā)行機(jī)構(gòu),。正常的發(fā)行方式為貸款、買賣外匯,，因此它也是外匯市場(chǎng)的參與者之一,，另外也會(huì)處理政府的債券。

央行同時(shí)對(duì)于銀行,、其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)也有賦予監(jiān)督權(quán),，確保它們不會(huì)莽撞行事或有欺瞞行為。最高長(zhǎng)官是央行總裁（Governor）,，日本銀行,、韓國(guó)銀行亦如此稱之，而中國(guó)人民銀行稱為行長(zhǎng)（Governor）,，歐洲中央銀行稱為主席（President）,，在香港金融管理局、新加坡金融管理局則是總裁（Chief Executive/Managing Director）,。

在大多數(shù)國(guó)家中央銀行均屬國(guó)有,，讓政府得以介入貨幣政策。不過(guò)也至少都有一定程度的自主性,，而所謂“獨(dú)立的中央銀行”意義是允許央行在免除政治力（如某國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)部要求該國(guó)央行配合）干擾的規(guī)范下運(yùn)作,。案例包括美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備系統(tǒng)、英格蘭銀行（1997年起）,、印度儲(chǔ)備銀行（1935年）,、墨西哥銀行（1993年）、日本銀行（1998年）,、加拿大銀行,、澳洲儲(chǔ)備銀行、歐洲央行等,。

貨幣政策（Monetary policy）是一個(gè)國(guó)家或是經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣權(quán)威機(jī)構(gòu)（多數(shù)國(guó)家由央行來(lái)執(zhí)行）利用控制貨幣供給量，來(lái)達(dá)到影響其他經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)所采取的措施,。主要手段包括：調(diào)節(jié)基準(zhǔn)利率,、調(diào)節(jié)商業(yè)銀行保證金、公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)操作,。利率,、信用、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格等一系列受貨幣政策影響的變化,，最終導(dǎo)致就業(yè)率,、生產(chǎn)量的變化的過(guò)程，稱為貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,。一般而言,，貨幣政策的主要目的是防止通貨膨脹,。多數(shù)國(guó)家的央行將目標(biāo)通貨膨脹率設(shè)定為1%-3%（少數(shù)國(guó)家例外，如美國(guó),、日本）,。

按照調(diào)節(jié)方向劃分，貨幣政策一般分為：激進(jìn)的－利率被調(diào)節(jié)為促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),；中性的－保持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定,；從緊的－降低通貨膨脹卻可將提高失業(yè)率。

貨幣權(quán)威機(jī)構(gòu)通常指中央銀行或是和央行緊密聯(lián)系的一套銀行系統(tǒng),。他們有發(fā)行貨幣,，改變貨幣供給和影響利率的能力。貨幣理論是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中研究貨幣的性質(zhì)與功能的一個(gè)分支,，是各經(jīng)濟(jì)體制定貨幣政策的理論基礎(chǔ),。

歷史上貨幣政策常常隨著貨幣理論研究的發(fā)展而改變。從1970年代開(kāi)始,，世界各國(guó)貨幣政策通常與財(cái)政政策（fiscal policy）分離,。即由中央銀行控制貨幣政策，由政府控制財(cái)政政策,。即使在此之前,，布雷頓森林體系已經(jīng)保證絕大多數(shù)的國(guó)家這兩種政策分離。

財(cái)政政策（Fiscal policy）是國(guó)家在一定時(shí)期內(nèi),，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,，綜合運(yùn)用各種財(cái)政調(diào)節(jié)手段，對(duì)一定的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)（使之增加或減少）的政策,。具體地說(shuō),，財(cái)政政策是由稅收政策、財(cái)政支出政策,、預(yù)算政策組成,，它包括財(cái)政政策目標(biāo)和財(cái)政政策調(diào)節(jié)手段兩部分。

財(cái)政政策目標(biāo)是根據(jù)財(cái)政的性質(zhì),、功能,、作用和特點(diǎn)，確定調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)時(shí)所要達(dá)到的目標(biāo),。主要包括：（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度一般用國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值或國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)表示,。財(cái)政政策運(yùn)用稅收和財(cái)政支出來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。（2）經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的目標(biāo),。（3）公平分配目標(biāo),。（4）資源配置的目標(biāo)。

財(cái)政政策是借助各種政策手段來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的,。主要有四種：（1）國(guó)家預(yù)算,。（2）國(guó)家稅收,。（3）國(guó)債。（4）財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼,。財(cái)政政策一般分為自動(dòng)財(cái)政政策（automatic fiscal policy）和衡量式財(cái)政政策（discretionary fiscal policy）,。

Too fast to land

心急吃不了熱豆腐

A stubbornly strong economy is frustrating central banks in their fight against inflation  

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You might have expected the fastest tightening of global monetary policy in 40 years to deal a heavy blow to the world economy. Yet in 2023 it seems to be shrugging off the effects of higher interest rates. Not only is inflation stubbornly high, but economic activity also appears to have quickened. Faster growth may sound good, but it is a headache for policymakers, who are trying to bring about a managed slowdown. And it could mean that a recession, when it eventually strikes, is more painful.

At the end of last year, according to business surveys, manufacturing and services output were both shrinking around the world. Today manufacturing output is flat and services are rebounding. American consumers are spending freely. Both wages and prices continue to grow fast, even in places where they were long stagnant. Japan looks set for a round of bumper wage rises in the spring. In the euro zone the monthly rate of “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, broke records in February. Labour markets are extraordinarily tight. As we report this week, in half of the members of the OECD, a group of mostly rich countries, employment rates are currently at record highs.

From equities to credit, financial markets are priced for global economic growth that is above trend. Not so long ago, investors were debating whether the world economy would face a “hard landing” involving a recession, or a “soft landing”, in which inflation was conquered without any downturn. Today they are asking whether the world economy is landing at all.

There are several reasons for the apparent acceleration. The mini-boom that took hold in the markets late in 2022 stimulated animal spirits. China’s reopening from zero-covid has led to a swift economic recovery which has caused order books in emerging markets to fill up. Falling energy prices in Europe have loosened the screws on its economy. But above all else, consumers and firms in most big economies are in strikingly good financial health. Many households are still flush with savings built up during the covid-19 pandemic; firms managed to lock in low interest rates for long stretches and have yet to suffer much from higher borrowing costs. Only in the most rate-sensitive sectors of the global economy, such as property, is the impact of higher rates clearly visible. In America the economy is so strong that even housing may be recovering slightly.

The acceleration means that recession is not imminent. But it also means that central banks will have to raise interest rates further if they are to succeed in returning inflation to their 2% targets. On March 7th Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted as much, causing stockmarkets to fall. Policymakers now face two difficult judgments.

The first is the extent to which monetary tightening to date has yet to have its full effect. Economists often talk up the “l(fā)ong and variable lags” with which interest rates work, but research suggests policy may be working faster today. If the effects of last year’s tightening are already exhausted, much more may be needed. A second judgment is over the persistence of the factors that seem to have immunised much of the economy against rate rises. Eventually, consumers will run out of spare cash and firms will feel the pinch from higher borrowing costs. In Sweden, where interest-rate rises rapidly pass through to households, the economy is suffering.

One thing is clear: the ideal path, where inflation falls without growth faltering much, looks narrower than it did even a month ago. Instead, central banks are increasingly likely to have to choose between tolerating higher inflation or slamming on the brakes for a second year running.