Treasury markets

國債市場

Overflowing

金錢滿溢

America’s banking system has too much cash. The consequences are bizarre

美國銀行系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金過剩。后果很奇怪。

When bond markets seized up in the spring of 2020 the problem was a shortage of cash. A global dash for dollars caused bond yields, which move inversely to prices, to spike. It sent the greenback soaring in currency markets. And it caused trading in Treasuries, usually the world’s most liquid market, almost to dry up. Today the opposite problem looms: a surfeit of money. It stems from the Federal Reserve’s response to last year’s crisis. The central bank calmed markets by buying vast quantities of bonds with newly created cash, and has continued its purchases, at a current pace of at least $120bn a month. The abundance of dollars is causing headaches for banks and investors.

債券市場在2020年春天失靈時的問題是現(xiàn)金短缺,。全球?qū)γ涝淖放鯇?dǎo)致與債券價格走勢相反的債券收益率飆升。它使美元在貨幣市場上猛增,。它還導(dǎo)致世界上流動性通常最強(qiáng)的美國國債交易幾乎枯竭。如今,，相反的問題隱約出現(xiàn):資金過剩。它源于美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)對去年危機(jī)的應(yīng)對,。央行通過用新創(chuàng)造的現(xiàn)金購買大量債券來安撫市場,，且當(dāng)前仍在以每月至少購買1200億美元的節(jié)奏繼續(xù)購買。泛濫的美元讓銀行和投資者頭疼不已,。

A central bank buying a bond for cash sounds like a simple swap of asset for asset. In fact it often swells the banking system. When the Fed buys assets in the secondary market, say from a pension fund, it cannot pay the fund with the electronic money it creates, because only banks can hold these so-called “reserves”. Instead, the fund gets a newly created deposit at its bank, and the bank gets the newly created reserve at the Fed. The bank ends up bigger, with a new liability and a new asset. The same thing also happens when a bank buys freshly issued debt at a Treasury auction, then sells it to the Fed. When the government spends the funds it has raised, such as by sending cheques to households or paying its staff, the banking system grows.

央行以現(xiàn)金購買債券聽起來像是簡單的以資產(chǎn)換資產(chǎn),。事實(shí)上，它經(jīng)常使銀行系統(tǒng)膨脹,。當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲在二級市場購買資產(chǎn),，比如從養(yǎng)老基金購買，它無法用自己創(chuàng)造的電子貨幣來支付,，因?yàn)橹挥秀y行才能持有這些所謂的“準(zhǔn)備金”,。相反，資金在銀行這里以一個新存款的形式被創(chuàng)造出來,，而銀行在美聯(lián)儲那里得到了新的存款準(zhǔn)備金,。結(jié)果是銀行有了新的負(fù)債和新的資產(chǎn)后變得更大。當(dāng)銀行在國債拍賣中購買新發(fā)行的債券,，然后將其賣給美聯(lián)儲時,，同樣的事情也會發(fā)生。當(dāng)政府花掉它籌集的資金時,，比如通過向家庭提供支票或支付員工工資,，銀行系統(tǒng)就會壯大。

With both mechanisms at work in the pandemic, the Fed’s assets and deposits at banks have shot up in tandem (see chart). The balance-sheet of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, grew from $2.7trn to $3.4trn in 2020 as deposits rose by 35%.

由于這兩種機(jī)制都在疫情中發(fā)揮作用,，美聯(lián)儲的總資產(chǎn)和商業(yè)銀行的存款也相繼暴漲(見圖表),。2020年，隨著存款增長35%,，美國最大的銀行摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表從2.7萬億美元增長到3.4萬億美元,。

Cash will keep pouring in. Since last spring the Treasury has issued more debt than it has needed to fund its enormous emergency stimulus in 2020. As a result the “Treasury general account” (tga)—the government’s current (or checking) account at the Fed—grew from about $350bn in early 2020 to about $1.3trn on March 11th. But much of this money will soon be spent on President Biden’s new stimulus programme, which includes cheques of $1,400 to most Americans. The Treasury has signalled that the tga balance will fall to $500bn by the end of June. And current law, passed the last time America’s debt ceiling was lifted, requires the balance to fall to about $120bn by August. Any rundown in the account means still more deposits and reserves for banks, in addition to those infused by the Fed.

現(xiàn)金將會不斷涌入,。自去年春季以來，財政部發(fā)行的債務(wù)規(guī)模超出它在2020年所需的大規(guī)模緊急刺激計劃所需的資金,。因此,，“財政部一般賬戶”(tga)——美國政府在美聯(lián)儲的活期（或支票）賬戶——從2020年初約3500億美元增至3月11日的約1.3萬億美元。但這筆錢中的大部分很快就會用于拜登總統(tǒng)的新刺激計劃,，其中包括向大多數(shù)美國人發(fā)放1400美元支票,。財政部已提示，6月底tga的余額將降至5000億美元,。而根據(jù)美國上次取消債務(wù)上限時通過的現(xiàn)行法律要求,，截至8月該余額須降至約1200億美元。賬戶中的任何資金減少都意味著,，銀行將在美聯(lián)儲注入的流動性之外,，迎來更多的存款和準(zhǔn)備金。

注釋：

1.Lift：If people in authority lift a law or rule that prevents people from doing something, they end it. 解除 (法令等)

2.rundown：裁減

The abundance of cash has two main effects. The first is that it has caused interest rates in the federal-funds market, in which banks lend reserves to one another overnight, to drift down. The Fed aims to keep the federal-funds rate between zero and 0.25%, but it has been falling within the band, and is now about 0.07%. As banks have abundant reserves, the federal-funds rate is economically insignificant. But rates in secured lending or “repo” markets, which matter much more to the real economy, have been approaching negative territory too. The benchmark secured-financing rate is just 0.01%. One-month Treasury bills yield only 0.03%.

大量的現(xiàn)金投放有兩個主要影響,。首先,，它導(dǎo)致了聯(lián)邦資金市場的利率下降，銀行在此市場上開展資金隔夜拆借業(yè)務(wù),。美聯(lián)儲的目標(biāo)是將聯(lián)邦資金利率保持在0至0.25%區(qū)間,，但區(qū)間內(nèi)利率一直在區(qū)間內(nèi)下行，目前約為0.07%,。由于銀行擁有大量準(zhǔn)備金,，聯(lián)邦資金利率的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響并不顯著。但對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響更大的擔(dān)保貸款或“回購”市場利率也已接近負(fù)值,?；鶞?zhǔn)擔(dān)保融資利率僅為0.01%。一個月的國債收益率僅為0.03%,。

The second effect is that banks are left with a lower ratio of equity capital to assets, making it harder to comply with minimum capital requirements set by regulators. One rule is the “supplementary leverage ratio” (slr), which requires big banks to fund themselves with equity worth at least 5% of their total assets. In March 2020 regulators exempted both cash reserves and Treasuries from the slr, recognising that the Fed’s emergency actions, by expanding bank assets, had made it bind more tightly. The exemption, however, expires at the end of March.

第二個影響是,，降低了銀行的股權(quán)資本與資產(chǎn)的比率，使得遵守監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)規(guī)定的最低資本要求變得更加困難,。規(guī)定之一是“補(bǔ)充杠桿比率”(slr),，它要求大型銀行自身提供至少占總資產(chǎn)5%的股權(quán)資本。2020年3月,，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)意識到美聯(lián)儲的緊急行動擴(kuò)大銀行資產(chǎn),，使該指標(biāo)的約束更加嚴(yán)苛，因此在slr中豁免了準(zhǔn)備金和美國國債,。但這項(xiàng)豁免將于3月底到期,。

注釋：

supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)：美聯(lián)儲針對商業(yè)銀行的資本充足率指標(biāo)。SLR的計算公式是一級資本/風(fēng)險資產(chǎn),，其中一級資本包括普通股和其他一級資本,。2008年金融危機(jī)之后,，美聯(lián)儲修改了SLR相關(guān)規(guī)定，對美國的大型銀行額外杠桿施加限制,，以防范銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險,。當(dāng)時根據(jù)要求，摩根大通,、花旗等8家系統(tǒng)重要性銀行需滿足SLR最低5%,。2020年4月1日，美聯(lián)儲等監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)暫時修改規(guī)定,，允許存款機(jī)構(gòu)在計算SLR時可以不包括美國國債和準(zhǔn)備金,，從而便于它們購買美債，并大幅降低美國大型銀行的資本充足率指標(biāo)考核壓力,。2020年3月之后美國商業(yè)銀行現(xiàn)金資產(chǎn)以及貸款的增速均出現(xiàn)了明顯的提升,。2021年3月19日周五，美聯(lián)儲宣布,，補(bǔ)充杠桿率（SLR）的減免措施按原計劃于3月31日到期,，市場此前普遍預(yù)期這一寬松措施將得到延續(xù)。美聯(lián)儲計劃重新評估SLR,，以確保它在“高儲備”環(huán)境下仍能發(fā)揮作用。美聯(lián)儲表示,，相信允許規(guī)則到期不會削弱美國國債市場的流動性或造成市場混亂,。國債市場已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定，大銀行的資本金仍然充足且有大約1萬億美元的準(zhǔn)備金,，取消SLR減免政策只會讓銀行對這些水平進(jìn)行微調(diào),。

Left unchecked, both factors could cause markets to behave strangely. If short-term interest rates go negative, then supposedly safe money-market funds might be forced to “break the buck”, returning to investors less than was put in. Facing a change to the slr, banks might turn away new deposits—a strategy JPMorgan floated in January. (The alternative, raising expensive capital to fund holdings of low-yielding cash, is unattractive.) The biggest worry concerns Treasury markets. An easy way for a bank to shrink its balance-sheet quickly is by selling assets to investors. Were a big bank or two to approach regulatory capital limits and start shunning Treasuries, the market could go into a tailspin. An early sign of this may have been in late February, when, amid a global bond-market sell-off, an auction of seven-year Treasuries suffered record low demand.

如果不加以約束，兩者都可能導(dǎo)致市場表現(xiàn)異常,。若短期利率降至負(fù)數(shù),，那理應(yīng)安全的貨幣市場基金可能會被迫“跌破一美元”，最終投資者收到的收益（甚至）要少于原先投入的金額,。面臨SLR的變化,，銀行或會拒絕新增存款——這是摩根大通（JPMorgan）在1月份提出的應(yīng)對策略。（另一種方法是籌集昂貴的資本金來持有低收益現(xiàn)金,，但這種方法沒有吸引力,。）最大的擔(dān)憂來自美國國債市場。銀行快速縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的一種簡單方法是出售資產(chǎn)給投資者,。如果一家或兩家大型銀行接近監(jiān)管資本限額并開始回避國債,，那么市場可能會陷入混亂,。早期跡象可能早在2月下旬便已顯現(xiàn),，當(dāng)時全球債券市場遭到拋售,，七年期美國國債的市場需求創(chuàng)歷史新低。

注釋

1：break the buck：貨幣市場基金每一份的面值是1美元,。在投資過程中,，如果一份貨幣市場基金的凈資產(chǎn)價值低于1美元，就稱發(fā)生了break the buck,。

2：tailspin:【航空】尾旋,，螺旋；〔轉(zhuǎn)義〕失去控制,；混亂,。

What to do? To fight the downward drift in interest rates, the Fed could marginally raise the rate it pays on reserves, currently 0.1%, though it declined to do so after its monetary-policy meeting on March 17th. Regulators might soon extend the exemption of reserves from the slr (Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, hinted that an announcement regarding the rule was imminent). Extending the exemption, however, would be controversial. On February 26th Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown, two Democratic senators, wrote to regulators urging them to restore the slr “as quickly as possible”, fearing that the pandemic was being used as an excuse to weaken reforms made after the global financial crisis.

應(yīng)該怎么做呢,？為了應(yīng)對利率下降,，美聯(lián)儲或許可稍微提高儲備金利率（目前為0.1％），盡管其在3月17日的貨幣政策會議后拒絕如此做法,。監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)可能很快會延長SLR豁免期限（美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾暗示即將發(fā)布有關(guān)該規(guī)則的公告）,。但延長豁免期限或存在爭議。2月26日,，兩名民主黨參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫（Elizabeth Warren）和謝羅德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）致信監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu),，敦促他們“盡快”恢復(fù)SLR，因?yàn)閾?dān)心疫情會被用作借口,，削弱全球金融危機(jī)后進(jìn)行的改革,。 

注：最終SLR豁免期并未像眾多分析師預(yù)測那般延長

延伸閱讀：《美聯(lián)儲稱不會延長補(bǔ)充杠桿率豁免但將檢討規(guī)則 銀行股應(yīng)聲大跌》