Weak near-term fundamentals kept the pressure on the front of the natural gas futures curve in early trading Monday. The May Nymex contract, set to expire this week, was down 13.6 cents to $1.610/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET.

Some “chaotic moves” could be in store prior to the expiration of the May contract, with more risk to the downside than to the upside, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

However, “the market is thinner, meaning it can more easily be pushed around, so we’d still advise caution,” the firm said. “Either way, the data still suggests that it is difficult to really be bullish at the front of this curve until we see clearer signs that the economy is coming ack and balances tighten significantly.

“Winter can remain supported, as that is where the lower production story can take precedence. Is it possible that cuts in production come sooner? Absolutely, and if that happens, the story at the front of the curve can change, but we do not see that yet.”

EBW Analytics Group analysts said they expect the May contract to slide in its last two days of trading, extending Friday’s 6.9-cent sell-off. The firm attributed the recent price weakness to two main drivers.

First is “the steep decline in weather-driven demand for gas expected over the next two weeks,” which should result in the first reported triple-digit storage injection from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) next week, the EBW analysts said. The other factor is “collapsing natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, which threaten to shut the door” on U.S. liquefied natural gas exports this summer.

This sets the stage for May to head lower before rolling off the board Tuesday, according to the firm.

“The June contract is also expected to slide this week, potentially ending the week at or below Friday’s close for May,” the EBW analysts said. “The bleeding may temporarily slow by next week, though, as large amounts of oil production start to be shut in and reduce supplies of associated gas.”

June crude oil futures were down $4.07 to $12.87/bbl at around 8:40 a.m. ET, with what Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn called a “wall of crude” looming over the market.

“While the stock market continues to show optimism about life after the coronavirus, in the energy industry there is just more doom and gloom,” Flynn said. “There is a backlog and a wall of crude that the market just can’t look beyond as global storage hubs fill up.

“Tankers are filled with oil floating in the ocean with no place to go. Producers are cutting but not fast enough to overcome the most significant demand destruction in the history of the globe.”

May RBOB gasoline was off fractionally at around 8:40 a.m. ET, down about 0.7 cents to around 65.4 cents/gal.