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4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy 4小時MACD 外匯策略 Welcome to the 4 Hour MACD Forex Strategy. This strategy is aimed at simplicity as well as high probability trades. I have been in the equity market for almost ten years now and in the forex market for two years. I learned very early that forex trading is not for the shaky ones. One must have a tested and definite trading strategy as well as well organized discipline to follow the strategy and execute the plan as to the letter. One must be exact and precise. 歡迎學(xué)習(xí)4小時MACD 外匯策略,。這個策略是以簡單和高概率交易為目標(biāo),。我現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)在投資市場待過差不多10年了，在外匯市場也已經(jīng)有兩年了,。我很早就知道外匯交易不適合常常容易動搖的人,。我們必須油一個經(jīng)得起測試及驗(yàn)證的交易策略及具有計(jì)劃有紀(jì)律的按策略交易并執(zhí)行本文上的計(jì)劃,。我們必須要嚴(yán)格與準(zhǔn)確,。 Therefore I paper traded for almost two years and read everything I could lay my hands on. I bought books and courses. I attend a 5 day live web seminar. All this did not help me at all as it did not fit my style of personality and I just did not seem to connect with all this different strategies. Over two years of watching the graphs with different indicators, moving averages etc. I started to get a feeling for the movement and motion of the market especially the EurUsd around certain moving averages. 因此,，我進(jìn)行了差不多兩年的模擬交易并把自己能讀的都讀了,，我才敢下手寫這篇文章,。我買了書和教材,。我參加了5天的網(wǎng)絡(luò)在線研討,。因?yàn)樗⒉环衔覀€人的性格，而我未能將這些不同的策略聯(lián)系起來,，所以,，所有的這些對我一點(diǎn)用都沒有。我看了超過兩年的帶有各種指標(biāo),，移動平均線等的圖表,，才開始大致能通過移動平均線來感受到市場,，特別是歐元/美元的運(yùn)行及波動,。 It wasn’t till late last year that I discover a setting with the MACD that gives easy to read signals on a regular basis on a 4 hour timeframe. I like the 4 hour timeframe as one are not glued to the screen full time. 去年的不久前我發(fā)現(xiàn)macd的一項(xiàng)設(shè)置可以讓我更好的有一個基礎(chǔ)規(guī)則去解讀h4圖表上的信號。我喜歡單一的看h4周期上的圖表而不用看完其他周期的圖表,。 If you look at FIG 1 below you will see that there were 14 signals over a period of 5 weeks. Within that period of FIG 1 the signals given were pretty good. There are times when some signals does not produce positive results. I then had to work on a filter system to only let me take the best ones. I found that the MACD when moving in a certain way produces a 95% accuracy. I will show you later how the high probability trades look like. 你可以從下面的FIG 1發(fā)現(xiàn)5周內(nèi)出現(xiàn)14個信號,，在FIG 1里給出的信號十分好。但有時候這些信號也會出現(xiàn)失靈,。因此我得做一個過濾系統(tǒng)能夠讓我可以捕捉最好的信號,。我發(fā)現(xiàn)MACD以一定方式運(yùn)行的時候，它有95%的準(zhǔn)確度,。下面我將介紹這個高概率交易是怎樣的,。 In FIG 1 the signals are shown and FIG 2 shows that an entry is made after the 4 hour bar has closed and at the opening of the next bar. 在FIG 1里展示了這些信號，F(xiàn)IG 2則說明在4H棒子形成后的第二個棒子開盤時介入,。 In FIG 3 another 19 deals were shown of which the last one was not finished yet so out of a total of 18 trades 5 were wrong and 13 were right. 在FIG 3里是暫時了另外19筆交易,，其中一筆交易未完成外，而18筆交易中得到一個5筆交易失敗,，13筆交易正確的結(jié)果,。 As it is a 4 hour strategy it means sometimes setting the alarm clock to catch an entry in the early morning hours. What makes it nice is that one will know after the close of a 4 hour bar whether the next 4 hour bar might close as a signal by just following the MACD. Therefore one can set an alarm at that time. 因?yàn)樗?H策略，這就意味著可以設(shè)定一個警鐘來捕捉在早上的介入點(diǎn),。這個策略的好處在于我們可以知道一個4小時的棒子結(jié)束后可以通過macd來判斷接下來的棒子是否可做為一個信號進(jìn)場,。因此,，我們可以那個時候設(shè)定一個警鐘。 Have a look at FIG 1 to 3. Disclaimer: As trading in the Forex market is very risky, the reader if going beyond this point and applying the concepts and methods describing in this document do so on his or her own will and risk. The writer and or anyone involved in the compiling of this document will not be held responsible for any losses incurred by using the methods described in this document as no money management nor stoploss levels are discussed as it vary from trader to trader according to there own risk and capital profiles. 看一下FIG1,，F(xiàn)IG2,，F(xiàn)IG3 免責(zé)聲明： 因?yàn)橥鈪R市場風(fēng)險十分大，如果沒有完全理解這一點(diǎn)并應(yīng)用這篇文章的觀念和方法,，風(fēng)險自負(fù),。由于不同眼交易者的風(fēng)險和資金現(xiàn)狀各異，所以沒有討論資金管理和止損水平,，因此作者及與編輯該文章有關(guān)的任何人對有應(yīng)用該文章的方法導(dǎo)致的任何損失不負(fù)責(zé)任. FIGURE 1 [viewimg] [viewimg] FIGURE 3 [viewimg] This was just to see and get a feeling for the graphs. Let us start to set-up our charts. 看看下面的圖表并感受一下,，讓我們了解一下圖表的設(shè)置。 Moving Averages: 移動平均線： First of all are the moving Averages that we are going to use. 首先說我們將會用到的移動平均線,。 1. 365 Exponential Moving Average (365EMA) 1.365指數(shù)移動平均線 2. 200 Simple Moving Average (200SMA) 200移動平均線 3. 89 Simple Moving Average (89SMA) 89移動平均線 4. 21 Exponential Moving Average (21EMA) 21指數(shù)移動平均線 5. 8 Exponential Moving Average (8EMA) 8指數(shù)移動平均線 MACD: MACD settings at MACD設(shè)置是：快EMA5.慢EMA13和MACD EMA 1 1. Fast EMA 5 2. Slow EMA 13 3. MACD EMA 1 Horizontal Lines: 水平線： Three sets of horizontal lines above and below zero should be drawn on the MACD window at levels as well as one on zero 在MACD的窗口應(yīng)該畫出來3條水平線,，一條在0下，一條在0上另一條在0軸上,。 1. Level +0.0015 2. Level +0.0030 3. Level +0.0045 4. Level –0.0015 5. Level –0.0030 6. Level –0.0045 Your Graph should look like this: (Choose your own colour and styles) 你的圖表應(yīng)該像這樣：（選擇你自己的顏色和風(fēng)格） The MACD moves in certain patterns that when recognized can be very profitable trades. Let me show you the very important ones first. By not following every signal but only the ones that gives high probability trades through certain MACD patterns serves as a filter. The ones not familiar are not taken. This is the filter. 當(dāng)MACD按照一定可靠的模式運(yùn)行時會是很有機(jī)會盈利的交易,。先讓我告訴你重點(diǎn)。不要遵循每一個信號,，只交易那些通過那些可靠的macd模式給出的概率高的交易信號,，把這做為一個過濾器。信號不相似的信號不要,。注意,，這就是過濾器。 This pattern comes very regular especially A and D as the MACD has moved beyond the 0.0045 level and are due for a correction and or trend reversal. B and C are trend continuing patterns and are entered in the direction of the trend. Red circles indicates entry signal and entry is made on the opening of the next bar. 這個模式是很規(guī)則的,，特別是A,，D，而MACD0.0045以外的水平可以作為修正或者趨勢反轉(zhuǎn),。B,，C傾向于模式的趨勢延續(xù)及開始順著趨勢的方向進(jìn)行。紅圈即是進(jìn)場信號,，而進(jìn)場需在第二根棒子的開盤。 The head and shoulder is another definite. 頭肩形態(tài)是另一個明確的信號,。 Double top and bottom does not need any introduction as it speaks in any timeframe. 雙頭和雙底并不需要任何介紹因?yàn)樗谌魏沃芷诙即嬖凇?br> When the MACD comes down towards the Zero line and turn back up just above the Zero line it is normally a trend continuing and should be taken and are normally a strong move. 當(dāng)MACD向0軸方向走并且在到達(dá)0軸前繼續(xù)向上走,，這通常是趨勢的延續(xù)，這樣的信號我們要把握住,，也通常也是強(qiáng)勢的運(yùn)動,。 Round tops and bottoms are for sure. Just be careful when within the first zone 0.0000 to 0.0015 above or below the zero. I like the rounding to be formed over at least 5 bars. 圓頂及圓底無須置疑。只是要留意第一個區(qū)域的0.0000-0.0015是在0軸之上還是之下,。我喜歡這個圓至少有5根棒子形成,。 this was a difficult month (Jan 2007)up to now but already 190 Pips up and a great move is coming as the price is within a range for almost 8 days. Lets see if that will happen. 07年2月是至今為止困難的一個月,，但是也已經(jīng)有190點(diǎn)上漲而因?yàn)楸P整了差不多8天，大行情也將出現(xiàn),。讓我們看看這種情況是否會發(fā)生,。 Up to now I have only concentrated to give the signal on the MACD window so that you will be able to recognize it. It is easy to see the formation after it has formed. It takes a bit of practice to recognize it while it is forming. Lets look at a couple just to see how they look when the trade is entered. 至今為止，為了能夠讓你識別出信號,，我只集中給出MACD窗口的這些信號,。如果它形成了，你就很容易看到它的形成過程,。我們需要一些練習(xí)來識別這些信號的形成,。我們看幾個例子它在怎樣的情況下我們可以進(jìn)行交易。 Let us look at the graph above. See how price levels play a roll in the support and resistance of the price movement. Say we entered the trade at Entry above. Our first profit target will be around our fast moving averages (8EMA and 21EMA). Our second profit target will be around the slow moving averages(89SMA and365EMA). Our third profit target will be at price level 1.2100 etc etc etc. 看上面的圖表,，看價格水平在價格運(yùn)動中支撐阻力位的是怎樣起作用的,。如上，我們按進(jìn)場信號交易,，我們第一盈利目標(biāo)將在快移動平均線（8,，12）附近。第二盈利目標(biāo)在 慢移動平均線（89,，365）附近,。第三盈利目標(biāo)將會在1.2100水平等等。 This is how you plan your trade in advance to take partial profits till you complete the trade. Should there be a moving average or price level nearby and below your entry level you must take note that the price might go and test them. So your stoploss must be aware of that. 這就是如何計(jì)劃你的交易,，從進(jìn)一步獲取部分利潤直至你完成這筆交易,。那里應(yīng)該有一根均線或者價格水平附近，或者在你的進(jìn)場價下方是否有一個可能將被到達(dá)或測試的位置你必須留意呢,？所以,，你的做止損的時候必須理解這些。 Again I ask you to study the movement of the price around the moving averages. When the price are above the 89SMA the trend is normally up and visa versa. After the price crosses the 89SMA it tends to pullback to the 21EMA before it carry on its direction if it is a trend direction change otherwise it tend to test the 89SMA again and then it runs over and across the 89SMA till it finds direction and then it pulls back to the 21EMA before proceeding on its path. 我再次讓你研究在移動平均線附近的價格運(yùn)動,，當(dāng)價格在89SMA以上時,，趨勢是通常 上漲的，相反在89SMA以下時價格通常會下跌,。在價格和89SMA 交叉之后,，它通常會回撤到21sma之后才繼續(xù)它的原來的方向。如果趨勢改變的話,，它就會去再度試探89SMA并且突破89SMA直到確認(rèn)方向,，然后在軌道運(yùn)行之前再次回撤21EMA。 Here are a live trade I did for someone in explaining how I trade. This is actual e-mails that I did send. 25 January 2007 21:00 (GMT+2) 下面是解釋我怎樣為某人做的一筆實(shí)況交易,。這是我確實(shí)的發(fā)出去的e-mail,。25 January 2007 21:00 (GMT+2) Hi I took it with 30 pip stoploss and hope I can add to the Gbp one earlier this week. Greetings 我做了30點(diǎn)止損，希望我可以在這周早點(diǎn)的增加gbp。祝賀 The MACD pulled back to the Zero line and then closes lower which indicate a down move. MACD拉回到0軸線然后收盤更低,，這暗示一波下跌 “Got entry at 1.2955 and has set stoploss at breakeven at 1.2955 when price did hit 1.2935. I am scared for a false breakout below support but now the price can turnaround as I have a free ride.” 在1.2955進(jìn)場,，當(dāng)價格觸擊1.2935時，把止損設(shè)置在平衡點(diǎn)1.2955,。我擔(dān)心下支撐的假突破,，但是現(xiàn)在價格正向我想的那樣輕松的反轉(zhuǎn)了。 “Took 50% profit at 1.2920 and set other half stoploss at 1.2935” 在1.2920平半倉,，并且在1.2935設(shè)另外半倉的止損,。 “Hi Amazing how it found support with Fibonacci. I wanted to do this trade with you as it developed so that you can see how I go about. I just had a feeling that the price is not going to go down to 1.2900 straight away so I applied fibonacci as there was no other indicator between the entry price and 1.2900. One has to listen to that little voice inside as well. I was stopped out on the other have at 1.2935 so the total gain was 35 pips on 50% and 20 pips on the other 50% for a total of 27.5 pips on full lot. Not bad for an hour work. 你會驚訝斐波納契數(shù)列如何提供支撐的。我想在行情繼續(xù)發(fā)展時進(jìn)行這個交易以便讓你明白我如何操作的,。我只是感覺價格不會直線下跌到1.2900,，所以我用斐波納契數(shù)測量進(jìn)場價至1。2900而不必使用其他指標(biāo),。這也可以從里面知曉一些很細(xì)微的變化,。我在1.2935出掉其他倉位，因此總的收益是一半是35點(diǎn)一半是20點(diǎn),，總盈利是27.5點(diǎn),。 這小時的操作還是不賴的。 This trade however was a bit risky as it was a breakout trade after ten days consolidation testing a trendline angling upwards. One has to evaluate the risk not only in terms of pips but also in terms of strategy and chart pattern. After a breakout the price very often turns back to test the breakout level and then that level becomes either support or resistance in this case it becomes Eur resistance. 這個交易無論怎么說還是有點(diǎn)風(fēng)險的,，因?yàn)樗黄浦蠼?jīng)過十天的鞏固測試趨勢線之后盤升,。要衡量風(fēng)險，不但表現(xiàn)在可盈利的點(diǎn)數(shù),，還表現(xiàn)在對策略及蠟燭形態(tài)把握,。突破后，價格往往要回測突破位置并且該位置可以是支撐也可以是阻力,，既然這樣,，那么它就是eur的阻力。 Stoploss have to be inside the breakout otherwise it can be triggered and then sometimes it can be very big before entry signal is given by the MACD. 止損點(diǎn)必須在突破價格以內(nèi),，否則在MACD給出進(jìn)入信號之前,，它會觸發(fā)，有時止損也要設(shè)置得非常大 Here is what I normally do when the MACD shows a signal but the stoploss are to big in relation to my capital or what I am comfortable with. I enter the trade in three stages with my stoploss set at the same level. 這是當(dāng)macd給出信號而相對我的資金,，所做的止損十分大時我通常的做法或我滿意的做法,。我分3步進(jìn)場，止損也設(shè)置在相同的水平,。 I stopped counting the pips for the April 2006 testing as it completely convinced me of the success of this method. I randomly tested it using previous years and the results were amazing. Average of 300+ pips per month and then I only trade the trades that gives signals at these times 17:00, 21:00 and 01:00 (GMT +2). It gives between 8-10 deals per month using the mentioned timeframes.. (I use Metatrader and data supply by MIG.) 我停止了計(jì)算2006年4月測試所得的點(diǎn)數(shù),，因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)完全讓我相信這個方法是成功的。我在前些年隨便的測試該方法的使用,，而所得的結(jié)果讓人驚訝,。每月平均300點(diǎn)盈利,，我交易那些在17:00, 21:00 和01:00 (GMT +2)出現(xiàn)的交易信號,。利用這個方法,，它每月給出8－10筆交易信號。（我用mt并且由MIG提供數(shù)據(jù)） If you use patterns in the MACD that occur regular that gives results and use them every time they occur you will most definitely make money. 如果你用了規(guī)則的給出信號的MACD模式,，并且每次出現(xiàn)信號的時候便交易,，你絕大多數(shù)明確的是在賺錢的。 I haven’t discuss nor used trendlines so far in this document and when you add them it will most definitely helps you in defining your exit levels. The entry level are determine by the MACD but the exit or profit levels is determine by support and resistance levels. I use the moving averages as described earlier as well as Fibonacci levels and then most definitely trendlines and price levels. I normally take the daily graph and draw the trendlines according to it and then go to the 4 hour graph. I makethem nice and thick so that I can see them. Then I draw the different price levels such as 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100 etc. It is amazing to see how the price find support and or resistance at these levels. I hope that this document will help you on your way to financial independents. 到目前為止在本文中我并沒有討論不用趨勢線,，而且如果添加他們的話會幫助你更好的確認(rèn)出場點(diǎn),。進(jìn)場點(diǎn)有MACD給出而出場點(diǎn)或者盈利水平則有支撐和阻力水平?jīng)Q定。我用前面提到的移動平均線和Fibonacci然后還用一些明確的確實(shí)線和價格水平,。我通常用日圖并且按照它畫趨勢線,，然后4H圖。我把他們畫的很漂亮跟粗,，這樣我能方便的看到他們,。接著我會畫出不同的價格水平像1.2900， 1.3000,，1.3100等,。在這些價位可以找到支撐和阻力。 我希望本問對你獨(dú)立的金融之路有幫助,。 Planning a trade 制定交易計(jì)劃 There is different ways in planning a trade but this is how I do it. 制定計(jì)劃可以有很多種,，而這是我如何做計(jì)劃的： A. This is the entry point determined by the MACD. There is no mystery about the entry. When the MACD satisfy the rules as outlined in the 4 Hour MACD strategy document then enter. MACD決定的入場點(diǎn)。進(jìn)場點(diǎn)沒甚么神秘,，只要MACD滿足了4小時MACD策略文章里的要點(diǎn)時即可進(jìn)場,。 B. This is our first area of partial profit taking. We have 3 barriers namely the 8EMA, 21EMA and the price level of 1.2200 to overcome. Where you set your partial profit taking is up to you. If you can watch it live you can always decide real time otherwise set it at what you feel comfortable with. The order of importance is price level first, then 21EMA and the 8EMA. 獲利的第一個區(qū)域。我們有3個阻力線分別是8EMA,，21EMA和需要突破的1.2200整位數(shù)關(guān)口,。你可以決定哪一個阻力位做為你的獲利目標(biāo)。如果你可以現(xiàn)場觀察它,，你總能隨時決定平倉,，否則你就按你滿意的設(shè)置。重要的順序是,，整位數(shù)價格第一,，然后是21EMA，最后是8EMA C. Next is the 89SMA and the price level of 1.2100. Both very important but the 89SMA normally halts or turn the price around. At this stage I will close everything except 20% of my position if there is still room to go. 接下來就是89SMA和1.2100整位數(shù)關(guān)口,。這些都很重要,。但是89SMA通常會價格停頓一下或者價格轉(zhuǎn)向。在這樣情況下,，除非到我的進(jìn)場價仍有20%的空間可走,，否則我會平掉所有頭寸。 D. Just above D we have a trendline that should see our full position closed. It could go to the 200SMA and the blue zone but only when live in front of the computer will I give it still a chance below the trendline. 在D區(qū)域上方我們可以看到一根趨勢線，這里就是我們所有的頭寸應(yīng)該平掉的地方,。價格可能回到SMA200及藍(lán)色區(qū)域,，但如果我不是坐在電腦旁，我不會考慮趨勢線下方的可能,。 This is how it worked out. It is easy afterwards but you must plan your trade in advance. The entry is not a factor anymore therefore one can concentrate in managing the trade. 這就是整個計(jì)劃的制作了,。只要你提前做好計(jì)劃，接下來的事情就變得容易了,。進(jìn)場不再是重要的因素,，由此，你可以更專注在管理自己的交易,。 Take partial profit at B, then another at C and then closed out at D. It completely ignored the 89SMA and went straight down to the trendline. When the trendline was hit the MACD indicated a trade upwards with the 89SMA as first barrier and so on and so on and so on. 得到B區(qū)域的盈利,，再者C區(qū)域，最后在D區(qū)域全部平倉,。價格完全忽視89SMA的阻力并直接下跌至趨勢線,。當(dāng)碰及趨勢線時，macd指示一個可以89SMA為第一阻力位的做多交易,，余下的我們再重新把計(jì)劃進(jìn)行,。 附錄一 I have been on a lot of forums only observing as to the ideas and behavior of people. This forum is the first one I found where people really exchange some useful and positive information. I always asked myself why is it that only about 5% is making a success of it as the overall claim are amongst brokers. After two years of study and trying about every strategy I could lay my hands on I come to the conclusion that as people differs in looks and in perceptions they also differs in their trading perceptions. Then I saw people act upon their perception and interpretation of what they feel is the right thing to do. I am right and they are wrong is the type of attitude. Then there are those that follow someone else religiously as long as he give the direction till he is wrong three times in a row than it is off to the next system. Why am I telling you all about this. If you haven’t tested a system over at least 30 live trades (paper trades) you cannot declare it as successful. After 30 trades you will have the heart of the system engraved inside. What I mean by engraved is that you should make notes about each trade as to emotion experienced, why was it wrong, is it the system or my bad decision, did I stick to the rules, was I following the system or did I use my little version of it etc. etc. This 4 hour MACD strategy gives a signal with the MACD patterns(round top, lower highs etc.) as to the timing of the entry. It only observe the possible direction due to resent movements. People wants a mechanical system that tells them everything and even do the deal for them. It must draw the trendlines, recognize the patterns, work out the entry, stop and profit levels. There is however one aspect that people ignores and that is that the market has an emotion that is hard if possible to built into a automatic system. I am going to explain it in this way. When I am sitting on the beach with my back to the ocean relaxing in the sun and there are people playing and running around etc. The fact that people run around does not make me nervous but it is when there is a different kind of behavior in there running that calls my attention. I will most definitely see in their faces what the emotion of their running is. What happens first is that those that saw the reason for their running first are the leaders in this action. The volume of people keeps increasing as the knowledge comes known till the masses start to react. I have five things that I can do. Firstly I can be a nervous sunbather and jump up every time someone comes running past only to find that it is trying to catch a running ball. Nothing serious. That is how 90% of people do there trading. Jumping after every move only to find it was normal zig zag movements and their stoploss get hit frequently. They get wiped out very quick. Secondly I can put on my dark glasses put on some sun tan lotion and ignore the running at all as I am covered. These people put in their deal goes fishing and looks after two days how did it goes. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t. After a year of trading they find themselves round about breakeven. Thirdly there are those that wants to investigate everything in detail as to why. By the time they found out why are the people running they get hit by a tsunami. By the time you found out why the market is running it is to late as it is about to turn around again. They always time the top or bottom but in the wrong direction. You get people that is always late. They get wiped out very quickly. Fourthly you get those that ran along the moment there is some action going on. This group does make some profit but it is nervous profit. I call them the news traders. With time (some accounts does not last till then) you can become good at it, but it is due to experience.. Let me explain to you the concept of the money changers and there actions. When interest rates comes down due to good economic condition these people send out all sorts of ways how to lend cheap money for that trip overseas, new car etc. etc. Till the money availability gets low and spending is sky-high due to the easy way to get money. Then the interest rate is raised by 0.5% and after a month another 0.5% and so on. More money out of the pocket of the consumer that he has to pay back than what he has budgeted for. Troubled times!!!!!!!!!. They are collecting till the cycle turns again and then it is lending out again. Have you ever thought of it in the field of Forex trading. So many websites inviting you to buy there system and it tells you exactly(to the pip) where to put your stops and where to enter and where to take profit etc. etc. If I know the cards that you have in your hand when playing against you I will always win. I think the brokers knows exactly where the group stops, entries and exits are. That is why it is important to move with the big ones. They will only take the price as to catch the weak ones. This is only my opinion and I might be wrong. I am only very cautious and suspicious. There are those that invites you to come and play on the beach of Forex knowing that a tsunami will hit some or other time. All they have to do is get as many people on that beach while they are playing around with them and over time they pass the ball into the hands of the majority but when the signs of a tsunami is nearing they are the first ones to leave without the majority noticing it because they are busy playing. Only there followers knows. When the tsunami hits they have their deals in to take advantage of the panic selling of the masses. They created it beforehand. Not the tsunami but the playing field conditions. Spreading some news here and there that they know the masses will react upon and so setup the whole scene. When the masses are buying you should be selling and visa versa. That is what a well known speaker and investor says “to step into the pain”. We as tiny investors does not have the resources to step into that pain as it means waiting for some time before the bubble burst and our capital cannot handle those type of stoplosses as they must be huge to handle the playing area of those on the beach. The money changers can handle that, They will sit for six months and knows that the coming tsunami will make them rich. Fifthly are those that watches the faces of those that play. Their emotion will tell the overall status. Playing!!!!!!. The big ones leave the scene unnoticeable to the majority. It is only when there followers see they are not there anymore that they started to react. It is at this point where you as part of that 5% must step in. Recognizing the changing emotion and run with them. You might not know why you are running yet but that you will read in the papers and not others reading about you in the papers. The MACD signal only tells us that a change in motion (not emotion) is taking place. We then have to look for a change in emotion and that comes with the TAIL I was describing in the exercise. There are many formations as to show the change in emotion. Morning/evening stars, tweezer top/bottom, spinners, inside candles, engulfing candles, doji candles etc. etc!!!!! look at investopedia.com or any educational website for those emotional signal patterns. Study past setups in the MACD signal that produced results and try to recognize the change in emotion. Also study the signals that did not produced results and see if there was emotional activity or not. If you have both in place, the MACD signal together with the emotional signal your chances of success are so much higher. [viewimg] 附錄二 The horizontal lines is just there to show overbought and or sold levels especially on the EurUsd. Sometimes the movement is close to the zero and within the fisrt MACD zone. I only use it as benchmarks as to where the MACD are at the moment. If one zooms in then you dont loose sight of the position of the MACD. The MACD does not have to reach certain levels. It is only when it zig zag accross the zero that one must be carefull but it happens when the price is in a narrow channel waiting for a breakout. Stoploss is set at the most resent high or low or at least two bars away. Do a bit of backtesting to get the feel for it. I try not to use equal numbers like 30, 40 etc. I rather use 33, 43 etc. Equal numbers seem to be sometimes the target . Stoplosses also depend on the capital and risk profile of each individual. It is with what you are comfortable with but at least out of the way. Because this strategy normally preduces a move right after the entry the stoploss dont have to be big. It is just because of working schedule and limited internet access during working hours. These were the amount of deals for 2006 per time (GMT+2) 01:00---25 05:00---34 09:00---17 13:00---46 17:00---52 21:00---29 That also depends on the profit targets. If I can only plan to manage 30 pips out of the deal I want my stoploss not to be greater than that. I sometimes even uses two candles back if the first one is a small candle. Todays trade (post31) had entry at 1.2915 with stoploss at 1.2890 initially and the previous candles fell nice within that range. I also takes profit in stages so that when a trade has run to the first S/R I like to get something in my pocket. I like to get to breakeven as soon as possible and the let the rest have its run. Remember also that the price has broken down through the 89SMA and a pullback to the 21EMA is the rule. But the MA's is to crowded so I will wait for a breakout first and then confirmation on the MACD as we are in a little consolidation phase. If the price moves away from the 21EMA coming down and the MACD shows our trend continue setup(move towards zero and then turn away) one can consider entering with first target 1.9500 and second one 365EMA. Also watch the trendline as from 8Jan. We are at support. Patients is the name of the game. As you can see in the samples that it seems that most of the time the MACD gives a positive signal before news comes out. And then I dont mean minutes before it. It will give it some time earlier. The big ones already knows before the news. I will set stoplosses at different levels to minimize the risk and yet to take advantage of the move should it go in my favour. Inrerest rates and farm payrolls is always dicy and I prefer to close deals before that. I just want to emphasize someting. I dont trade as to the exact pip. By that I mean if the 21EMA is 39 pips away I subtract my 2 pips spread and then put in a close order for 37 pips. I dont do it that way. Profit after 30 pips is good enough for me. I have lost to many deals with one or three pips to be that exact. If my profit target is at 1.2900 with a possible 40 gain I will take profit at 1.2890 for a sure 30 pips. I dont also trade every signal the MACD is given. Look at history to see which ones give definite gain and study the looks of it. See how it moved in relation to the MA's. I have studied the market for two years papertrading before going live. Treat this strategy as a bussines. Draw up a bussines plan and write a Standard Procedure Instruction as to what are the steps in cronicle order when a setup is about to occur. 1. Is the setup according to the rules. Does it looks OK. 2. Are there news ahead 3. What is my risk. Stoploss. Can I afford it. 4. How far away are the first line of profit taking. Is it worth it. 5. How long do I plan to be in this trade. If we are at a 5 year low and I can get in at the bottom I surely wanted to stay in as long as possible. Is it a quick 20 pips against the trend on a pullback. 6. If I cant watch it live how will I manage and protect the trade. Might reduce the stoploss till I can attend live again etc. This is only an example. Do your own. A profit not yet taken is not a profit. That is high risk trades but normally with great profit. As the moves are normally fast I set my stoploss tight at max 23 pips waiting for the price to pierce a little back into the previous candle to give me that extra ten pips on the stoploss or so. I went both ways in my trading path of almost 10 years. First fundamental and then technical. What I find was that there are some sort of a link between the two. People act upon information and most definitely on their interpretation of that information. It is not so much the info as the interpretation thereof that brings action according to the interpretation. I found that certain technical indicators are actually based upon this interpretation of info. Moving averages are just smoothing out the actions or movements based upon the interpretation of the information. The shorter the period the most resent info are carrying the weight and the longer the period the more and broader info are involved. That is why I don't trade crossovers of moving averages but rather studied the movement around(support and resistance) this moving averages. To me I don't see the price or value of a currency but to me it is the actions of people based upon their interpretation of information they have. Thats why one are bying and one are selling at he same time. Different strategies also play a roll. To study fundamentals surely does have its place but for me I don't have the time nor the resources to do it. And then I will have to predetermine how are the people going to interpret it to try and predict the price movement and when will I enter en where will I exit a trade.I will rather watch the severity of the fundamentals reflected in the currency movements(actions of the people based upon their interpretation of the info) and base my involvement on that through a tested strategy. I am using two short term moving averages, one medium term and one long term moving average as guides as to the direction of movement. Along this different paths of actions I make my decisions. It is not only the MACD that I amwatching. That only tells me to pull the trigger. The support and resistance levels tells me what people are expecting and what people are willing to pay for the information they have. Humans have the tendency to react the same under certain conditions and that is what support and resistance is telling me. Good luck to you as fundamentals surely is very good as to longer term expectancy and accumilation and adding to positions. Will definitely not trade it on the MACD strategy. Might do it on the 5 min chart with a different strategy. This is gamble money. Win or loose. Only 2 chances. News is to risky. I only trade it from time to time. Not on a regular basis. When it goes the one way and turn around I like it. I studied the movements and interaction between the price movement and moving averages over a period of 2 years. I found that Fibonacci numbers gave the best results as to barriers that makes the price to stay there for a while. I have also found that there is a correlation between the MA's and the reactions of people regarding to their interpretation of news and where they are willing to take the price. It was more something I obsurved than what I worked out. You can look at history on any timeframe using that MA's and come and tell us what you have seen. You will be amazed to see it works on any timeframe. The 200SMA is not a Fib number but are a wellknown one amongst traders. I like analyses and I am a draughtsman and I think that is where it comes from. I have missed your first question on SMAs and EMAs and cant find it or is it the one in this post you were talking about. If not can you please put it again and I promise that I will respond. The EMA is giving more weight to the resent price movement then the SMA while the SMA is a flatter. Draw a 100EMA and a 100SMA on the same graph and see what happens. I just found that the 21EMA fit the most resent price movement better. The 89SMA is where if the price is above it the sentiment is bullish and visa versa is bearish. The 200SMA is according to me the overall reflector of the average interpretation of the news and the longterm trend. The 365EMA is long term but it gives more weight to resent data but I must admit it does not play a very prominent and active role. There are certain times when the price will test it away from all the other MA's. I use it then. I will only enter when the MACD makes a pullback and give a trend continue signal. 200SMA is only about 20 pips above 1.3000. Not worth it I would say. The setup starts to look promising. We are however just above the 89SMA which can turn out to be support. I will rahter wait for the continuation pattern for a long to occur or another down candle will confirm the downmove. There are plenty of chances. Be patience. As you can see. Wait for it. No need to rush it. There is plenty good trades. Experience -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A wealthy old lady decides to go on a photo safari in Africa, taking her faithful, elderly poodle named Cuddles, along for the company. One day the old poodle starts chasing butterflies and before long, Cuddles discovers that he's lost. Wandering about, he notices a leopard heading rapidly in his direction with the intention of having lunch. The old poodle thinks, 'Oh, oh! I'm in deep doo-doo now!' Noticing some bones on the ground close by, he immediately settles down to chew on the bones with his back to the approaching cat. Just as the leopard is about to leap the old poodle exclaims loudly, 'Boy, that was one delicious leopard! I wonder if there are any more around here?' Hearing this, the young leopard halts his attack in mid-strike, a look of terror comes over him and he slinks away into the trees. 'Whew!', says the leopard, 'That was close! That old poodle nearly had me!' Meanwhile, a monkey who had been watching the whole scene from a nearby tree, figures he can put this knowledge to good use and trade it for protection from the leopard. So off he goes, but the old poodle sees him heading after the leopard with great speed, and figures that something must be up. The monkey soon catches up with the leopard, spills the beans and strikes a deal for himself with the leopard. The young leopard is furious at being made a fool of and says, 'Here, monkey, hop on my back and see what's going to happen to that conniving canine! Now, the old poodle sees the leopard coming with the monkey on his back and thinks, 'What am I going to do now?', but instead of running, the dog sits down with his back to his attackers, pretending he hasn't seen them yet, and just when they get close enough to hear, the old poodle says... 'Where's that @##### monkey? I sent him off an hour ago to bring me another leopard! Moral of this story.... Don't mess with old f @ rts...age and skill will always overcome youth and treachery! Bullsh # t and brilliance only come with age and experience. When the price is trending it normally breaks through the 89SMA and then pulls back to the 21EMA and then when it continues it could be the start of a strong trend. Don't try to take every signal the MACD is given. When there is none on the EurUsd or the GbpUsd we jump to other pairs and then we are actually looking for a trade and it is not going to be long and we will find one. You must not look for a trade. If the system does not have one there is not one. Stay with the currencies you are fimiliar with. The facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that I call the moving averages highway lanes. Each define a certain speed. The 200SMA very slow, 89SMA slow, 21EMA mediumfast and the 8EMA very fast. If you look at the chart above you will notice that the speed of the market was fast to very fast so that pricelevel won't stop or slow down the price. When the price is finding support on the 89SMA twice in a row the speed is slow etc. Currently the speed of the EurUsd is slow to very very slow as it is around the 200SMA and 365EMA lane The price then tend to hoover around the support an resistance levels untill the speed changes. When the price move through the 89SMA and break a trendline and pulls back towards the 21EMA and then continue the trend it is a sign that we might be in a real trend. The 8EMA shows that the price is below on a down trend which indicate we are in the very fast lane. If you go long now on a MACD signal it would on a retracement to inbetween the 8EMA and 21EMA. Check the R:R ratio. Someone aked me about the live trades I made with this system. The only live ones I made with this system so far are the ones I have done and described in this thread and the live one in the manual. There were one made the 29 Jan 2007 16:00(GMT) on the GBP with gain 109 pips I did not describe as the thread was just introduced. My backtesting showed over 300pips per month. My live trades are going to be described on the thread as I am doing it. I only do the EurUsd and the GbpUsd and entries will be on 16:00 , 20:00 and 0:00 GMT time as I cannot enter at other times due to working conditions. If you are fimiliar with other currencies you are welcome to enter those and give as some feedback and charts for discussion. I am not going to get involve in prodicting what may be as I have found that people act upon those thoughts with live accounts. I believe in the rule that the facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that. I will only act if the MACD shows a signal and I have worked out the probabilities and only if that is in my favour will I enter. 附錄三 STOPLOSS I haven’t discussed the field of stoplosses in the PDF document as it is not a matter of pattern and or standard way. There are no definite rules as to where stoplosses should be placed. This is the major cause for people loosing money. If stops wont be hit nobody will loose money. I just feel that to little time is spend on discussing stoplosses. We very easily come up with a strategy in detail but not a stoploss strategy. I have done the same giving very exact instructions in the PDF document as to the entries and profit targets but nothing on stoplosses. The question is now----- WHY??????. I deliberately did not give any details as to stoplosses as that depends on each individual’s profile. For some people a 20 pip possible loss is just to much to handle while other’s can handle 50 pips. The question is how much capital do you have. If you risk 50 pips how much in percentage is that of your total capital. For anyone to expect trading over a long period of time it is of essential importance to risk as little as possible of capital. The excepted rule is not more than 3%-5% of capital. If your capital is $1000 then your stoploss should not be more than 3% of that which equal $30 or about 3 pips.. Now that does not make sense on a leverage account. That is why trading a mini account(1 pip = $1) with $1000 makes it ten times better and the 3% risk now remains 30$ but it now becomes 30 pips. Some have it that 5% on a system that gives 65+% correct deals is also acceptable. Thus we can risk between 30 and 50 pips on a mini account of $1000 capital and will have a chance to trade over an extended period of time that when we hit that 3-5 losses in a row we will not be wiped out and will still have capital to recover. Now comes the question of where to set my stoploss when the MACD gives a signal. If your profile (3%-5% of capital) only allows you a 40 pip stoploss and the most resent low/high or two to three bars back or the trendline is more than that away you simply skip the trade. I have given a way to enter at three different levels to reduce the amount of pips risk in the PDF document. You can use that to make a 50 pip risk to about 35 pips overall. That is also done just to make sure that you stay in the business in the future. One does not necessary have to have all your capital in your account with your broker. You might have $10000 capital of which $3000 is with your broker and the rest in your own bank account. You can than calculate your risk on $10000 as long as that money is available for the Forex. The moment you use of that money ( for personal use) your risk in terms of pips reduces as well because your capital is less. When the MACD gives a signal it all depends how far away is the support and resistance levels. If it is more than your risk profile just let it passes by. This is how I do it. My risk profile allows for 50 pips max but I don’t like using more than 43. I don’t use equal numbers as you will notice how many times it exactly test those levels. I uses 23,28,33,38,43. Put your stops below the resent support/resistance. The problem with most people is that they cannot afford 3 to 4 losses in a row as it will wipe them out. Any system has it bad patches. The MACD I believe can and will give 3 losses in a row sometimes. That means 150 pips could be on the cards. Can you still go on after such a loss. If not I suggest you save money till you can survive such a run of bad deals. I have made provision for 200 pips loss in a bad run. Hope this helped in any sense. Phillip |
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