Wall Street pay will bounce in 2012 from last year's sharply reduced levels, but bonuses will be lower and have more strings attached than before the financial crisis, the latest tally of finance-industry compensation shows.

So-called incentive-based pay, which includes cash and stock awards, is set to be flat to up 5% to 10% from a year earlier, according to a forecast set to be released Monday by consulting firm Johnson Associates. At the same time, financial firms are keeping a lid on cash outlays by deferring more pay and trimming their workforces.

'We are as low as we have been in 10 or 15 years,' said Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, referring to Wall Street's bonus pool. 'It's the new normal.'

The forecast is the latest sign that the weak economy, tougher regulations and uneasy markets that are hampering banks' financial performance are pinching their workers' wallets. Job cuts have slowed from their frenetic pace in the second half of 2011, when two dozen global financial firms announced plans to cut more than 100,000 positions, but rethinking cutbacks and compensation is now the norm.

Many securities-industry employees still rake in far more in pay than most other professions. But gone are the days when scores of star traders would get million-dollar, year-end windfalls. The average managing director is set to take home about $930,000 in total pay for 2012, up 3.3% from $900,000 a year ago but down about 23% from $1.2 million in 2010.

Since the financial crisis brought the bailouts of firms such as Citigroup Inc., C -0.92% Bank of America Corp. BAC +1.13% and Morgan Stanley, MS +0.97% firms have shifted much of their pay to incentive-based structures such as deferred pay that aim to curb risk-taking.

Mr. Johnson said an equity trader who is managing director at a major firm could receive as much as 70% of his pay at a later date, an arrangement that ties more compensation to long-term performance.

Reflecting a big rebound from last year's plunge, the survey said bond traders─among the hardest hit in terms of pay in 2011─could see their bonuses rise 10% to 20%, even though several firms are scaling back fixed-income trading operations.

Investment bankers and equity traders may receive as much as 10% less in bonuses than last year. Equity volumes remain weak, while global merger and acquisition volume is down 16% to $1.7 trillion through the first nine months of the year, according to Thomson Reuters.

The quarterly survey is based on public financial data from eight of the largest investment and commercial banks and 10 of the largest asset-management firms as well as conversations with employees at those firms.

Mr. Johnson projects bonuses for investment and commercial bankers and asset and wealth managers could rise 5% to 15% in 2013, though he says that will only come with 'a leaner and more focused' workforce.

'The industry got too large,' he said. 'We are digging ourselves out of a hole.

BRETT PHILBIN / LIZ MOYER

關(guān)金融業(yè)薪酬的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，和去年大幅降低的薪酬水平相比,，今年華爾街的薪酬將會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈,，但和金融危機(jī)之前的水平相比，獎(jiǎng)金的數(shù)量將會(huì)降低,，同時(shí)薪酬附帶的限制性條件也將更多,。

咨詢公司Johnson Associates定于周一發(fā)布的一份預(yù)測顯示，包括現(xiàn)金和股票獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)在內(nèi)的所謂“激勵(lì)性薪酬”同比將持平或增長5%至10%,。與此同時(shí),，金融機(jī)構(gòu)通過推遲發(fā)放更多薪資并削減員工數(shù)量來限制現(xiàn)金支出。

Johnson Associates的董事總經(jīng)理約翰遜(Alan Johnson)說：我們正處于10或15年來的最低水平,，這是新的常態(tài),。他在這里指的是華爾街的獎(jiǎng)金池。

該 預(yù)測所透露出的最新跡象表明,，疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì),，更加嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管，以及拖累銀行財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績的不利市場狀況正在影響金融業(yè)從業(yè)人員的薪酬,。雖然和2011年下半年瘋 狂的裁員相比（當(dāng)時(shí)有24家全球性金融機(jī)構(gòu)宣布裁撤逾10萬個(gè)工作崗位的計(jì)劃）,，眼下裁員的速度有所放緩,，但不時(shí)考慮減員降薪現(xiàn)在已成為常態(tài)。

雖 然和大多數(shù)職業(yè)相比,，很多證券業(yè)從業(yè)人員還是能輕松賺到高得多的薪水,，但大量明星交易員能夠拿到數(shù)百萬美元年底分紅的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。各大投行的董 事總經(jīng)理在2012年平均能夠拿到的總薪酬約為93萬美元,，和一年前90萬美元的總薪酬相比上升了3.3%,，但和2010年120萬美元的薪酬總額相比降 低了大約23%。

由于金融危機(jī)讓花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup Inc.),、美國銀行(Bank of America Corp.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)接受了救助,，金融機(jī)構(gòu)將大比例薪酬轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檫f延薪酬等激勵(lì)性薪資，其目的是為了遏制員工不負(fù)責(zé)任隨意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為,。

約翰遜說,，對(duì)于在華爾街一家主要大行擔(dān)任董事總經(jīng)理的股票交易員來說，其薪酬中可能有高達(dá)70%的比例屬遞延薪酬,，這種安排將更大比例的薪酬同員工的中長期業(yè)績掛鉤,。

調(diào)查說，作為2011年降薪幅度最大的一個(gè)群體,，債券交易員的獎(jiǎng)金可能會(huì)上升10%至20%,，雖然多家機(jī)構(gòu)正在縮減固定收益證券的交易業(yè)務(wù)。這也反映出債券交易員的獎(jiǎng)金在去年大幅跳水后將有較大反彈,。

和去年相比,，投資銀行家和股票交易員得到的獎(jiǎng)金數(shù)量可能減少10%。湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的數(shù)據(jù)表明,，股票交易量仍然疲弱,，今年頭九個(gè)月全球并購交易量下降16%，至1.7萬億美元,。

這份季度調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)來源是：八家最大的投資銀行和商業(yè)銀行以及10家最大的資產(chǎn)管理公司的公開財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),，以及同這些機(jī)構(gòu)的員工所進(jìn)行的訪談。

約翰遜預(yù)計(jì),，2013年投資和商業(yè)銀行家以及資產(chǎn)和財(cái)富管理顧問的獎(jiǎng)金可能上升5%到15%,，但他也說這只有在進(jìn)一步精簡員工且分工更加明確的情況下才會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

約翰遜說：這個(gè)行業(yè)已經(jīng)變得過于龐大,，我們正在努力自救,。

BRETT PHILBIN / LIZ MOYER