在這個(gè)千年伊始,，紐約成為全球最重要的大都會(huì),，同時(shí)也成為這個(gè)地球上所有人們觀念里的首府。然而在紐約人變得越來越富有之前,，我們或許要將目光瞥向在地球另一端的一個(gè)已經(jīng)沒落的城市——中國開封,。

Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans - as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."

在大約公元1000年，開封這座傍依黃河的古老城市曾經(jīng)是世界上最大的中心,。如果你未曾聽說過,，那么對(duì)于美國人來說這或許是一個(gè)有益的警告——作為一個(gè)例子，美國人都應(yīng)該學(xué)會(huì)這句中國的名言：輝煌如過眼云煙,。

As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.

作為世界唯一的超級(jí)大國,，美國在今天看來似乎已經(jīng)擁有了對(duì)全球的控制權(quán)。但是如果回溯歷史,，它將告訴人們霸權(quán)是多么的短暫,，尤其對(duì)于個(gè)別的城市而言。

My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.

縱觀歷史,，在公元前2000年,，世界的中心城市是伊拉克。在公元前1500年,，是埃及,。而在公元前1000年，則沒有出現(xiàn)絕對(duì)的統(tǒng)治者,，如果硬要一個(gè)例子的話或許是黎巴嫩。到了公元前500年,，或許是波斯,。公元元年，是羅馬帝國,，公元五百年,，中國長安，一千年是開封,，1500年是意大利,，而2000年輪到了紐約。2500年可能不是上述的任何一座城市,。

Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000

今天的開封破舊而窮困,，甚至無法作為一個(gè)省的省會(huì)，規(guī)模小到?jīng)]有一個(gè)自己的機(jī)場,。需要維修的城桓僅僅是在強(qiáng)調(diào)它曾經(jīng)是多么的富有,。11世紀(jì)，在它還是宋朝首都的時(shí)候,，人口過百萬,，對(duì)比那時(shí)的倫敦,，才不過15000而已。

An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business

在北京故宮博物院里一副17英尺長的卷軸記錄了古開封的繁榮和昌盛,。每條街道商客如流,，摩肩接踵，從絲綢之路來的商人們用駱駝滿載貨物,，數(shù)不清的茶館,、酒肆、旅店,，一派華麗景象,。

Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.

流動(dòng)人口來自世界各地，包括猶太人,。甚至在今天,，開封也有一些人是屬于猶太人的后裔，并且信奉伊斯蘭教,，不吃豬肉,。

As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.

當(dāng)我漫步在開封，詢問當(dāng)?shù)厝藶槭裁丛?jīng)如此的一個(gè)世界中心淪落到了現(xiàn)在這種地步,，我卻得到了大量他們關(guān)于對(duì)紐約的羨慕之情,。一個(gè)人告訴我他為了非法移民到美國花了25000港幣，但是也有許多當(dāng)?shù)厝藞?jiān)持認(rèn)為中國有朝一日會(huì)回到曾經(jīng)扮演世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的角色和地位,。

"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it."

“中國現(xiàn)在繁榮了”開封外城鎮(zhèn)的一個(gè)叫王芮娜的農(nóng)村女人說,，“給我們幾十年時(shí)間，我們會(huì)趕上美國,，甚至超越他,。”

She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.

So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?

她是對(duì)的。美國目前是世界最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)中心,，但是許多跡象表明,，中國或許在25年之后在平均購買力方面會(huì)超過我們。所以,，紐約應(yīng)該從開封身上學(xué)到些什么,？

One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.

在一個(gè)靠科技和健全的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制維系的社會(huì)里有一個(gè)教訓(xùn)很重要。古中國的繁榮是由于它的超前的人口,，制度和技術(shù)革新,，比如鐵犁的應(yīng)用，印刷術(shù)以及紙錢,。然而,，中國也因此開始變的不思進(jìn)取，最終導(dǎo)致近600年的停滯不前。

A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end.

第二個(gè)教訓(xùn)就是自大的危險(xiǎn),，當(dāng)中國認(rèn)為它沒有什么要向世界其他國家學(xué)習(xí)的時(shí)候,，也就是淪落的開始。

I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.

基于以上兩點(diǎn),，我非常替美國擔(dān)憂,。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)制度的不完善導(dǎo)致我們無法面對(duì)糧食補(bǔ)貼和長期的預(yù)算赤字。我們的技術(shù)很強(qiáng)大,，但是美國的公眾學(xué)校在數(shù)學(xué)和科技上只屬于二流水平,。而且美國人在中國可能再次被推動(dòng)到世界最前沿的一步步變化上缺乏足夠的關(guān)注。

Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name - and yet his progeny were different.

在黃河邊上我遇到一位70多歲的叫做王浩的老農(nóng)民,，他從未上過學(xué),，也不會(huì)寫自己的名字，但他的后代截然不同,。

“Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.

Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.

“我的兩個(gè)孫子在上大學(xué),。”他自豪的說，然后開始談?wù)摷依锩娴碾娔X,。

想想開封,，我們應(yīng)該改進(jìn)我們的高等教育，加強(qiáng)教育力量和人口政策,。因?yàn)槿绻覀兠允г诩釉谖覀冾^上的桂冠,，那么紐約這個(gè)可能同曾經(jīng)的開封一樣優(yōu)秀的城市也會(huì)同它一樣最終消失在世人的眼里。